While it’s been hard not to let out a primal scream over the last few days, I’m trying my hardest not to get worried. Well, too late. By “not worried,” I really mean “not too worried.”
I know that the McCain post-convention bounce will fade and wither away, but there are two polls from yesterday that concern me greatly:
1) Barack is losing support from white women — for now. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released yesterday finds that among white women, McCain is leading 53 to 41. The pre-convention numbers favored Barack at 50 to 42. This is a key constituency that we absolutely need to win this election. I can’t remember the time that the Democrats haven’t finished ahead in this demographic.
2) McCain is now winning a majority of Independents. Gallup has found that McCain’s support from Independents has also jumped from the low-40’s to the low-50’s. Before the convention, Obama and McCain were tied at 42% apiece. Now McCain has 52%.
Repeat the mantra with me and cross your fingers: “It’s just a convention bounce, it’s just a convention bounce.”
I’m hoping that today’s daily numbers show us doing better. And I’m also hoping that as the state polls come in, we’re still looking good on the electoral map, because that’s the one that really counts.
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Most of the Independents I meet nowadays are on the conservative end of the issues. I’m not sure whether they are registered as Independent or just calling themselves that to avoid the well-deserved stigma associated with anyone who voted for Bush (especially if they were dumb enough to do that twice).
Perhaps the upswing in registered Independents for McCain includes disenchanted Republicans who switched parties after the current administration continued to provide doom for the nation. McCain appears more ‘in touch’ with things thanks to Palin (at least in the eyes of these voters) and since they are after reform, they are going for McCain.
The problem here isn’t the puzzle of McCain wooing those demographics, but how Obama should win them back. I really thought Hillary’s speech at the DNC was convincing and sincere enough to keep most of her voters with Obama.
I am seriously disappointed in any female voters who turned from Clinton to McCain just because of the Palin pick. I’ve heard white women say “I’m pro-choice, but Palin stuck to her ideals so even though I disagree with her, I like her.” This should be a fundamental issue for many female voters, but I guess it is showing that some people would rather vote for a woman they don’t like who sticks to her principles than a man they agree with who also does.
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